Japan’s ＂nuclear-free＂ theory and its ＂nuclear-armed＂ plan
[reporter connected]
Guangming Daily reporter in Tokyo Ma Yu ‘an
From May 19th to 21st, the Group of Seven (G7) Summit was held in Hiroshima. According to the Kyodo News Agency, the G7 summit statement issued on the 20th mentioned that it would promote "the realization of a nuclear-weapon-free world in a way that is safe for all".
This expression of "rich connotation" actually hides "mystery".
The nuclear issue is a sensitive topic for Japan, which was attacked by the atomic bomb. Japan advocates the establishment of a "nuclear-free world", which is the aspiration of its domestic public opinion, but there are various indications that the actions of Japanese political circles on "nuclear support" have never stopped. With the continuous upgrading of Japan’s national security strategy, Japan is seeking to strengthen the nuclear umbrella provided by the United States with "nuclear sharing".
On May 21st, people gathered in Bagomachi Park, Hiroshima, Japan, to protest against the G-7 summit. Xinhua news agency
The plot of "nuclear support" has a long history.
The reason why Japan chose Hiroshima as the venue of the summit was to let the heads of state attending the meeting see the disastrous consequences brought by nuclear weapons, so as to make a "nuclear-free" article. Japanese Prime Minister kishida fumio led the heads of state to the local Peace Park and Memorial Hall, and visited all kinds of information displays that recorded the horrors of Hiroshima after being bombed by the American atomic bomb. Since coordinating the specific agenda of the G7 Summit last year, kishida fumio has put forward the Hiroshima Action Plan, calling on all countries to swear never to use nuclear weapons, be transparent about their nuclear arsenals, further denuclearize and commit to nuclear non-proliferation.
On the one hand, "talk about family history"; On the other hand, Japan’s "nuclear-armed" scheme has a long history.
In an interview with The Economist, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that Japan wanted to engage in nuclear weapons 49 years ago, and that "Japan may acquire multiple nuclear bombs without conducting nuclear tests." Kissinger also predicted that Japan may have nuclear weapons in the next five years.
Kissinger’s statement is not groundless. American nuclear experts have long listed Japan as a "nuclear power" and acknowledged that Japan is a potential nuclear power. Because the definition of "nuclear-weapon States" includes "countries with the potential to produce nuclear weapons", Japan is naturally included.
It is worth mentioning that it is with the connivance and acquiescence of the United States that Japan has been able to reserve a considerable amount of nuclear materials. "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" disclosed in 2018 that Japan’s plutonium material reserves have exceeded 47 tons, far exceeding the needs of nuclear power plants. If it is used to manufacture nuclear weapons, it can produce more than 6,000 atomic bombs.
In fact, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, takaichi sanae, then the president of the government investigation of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, once again expressed his hope to discuss the principle of "not bringing in nuclear weapons" in Japan’s "three non-nuclear principles". Its purpose is to try to break through the restriction of "not importing nuclear weapons" and realize "nuclear sharing" between the United States and its European allies.
Since then, the debate on the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence within the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has heated up again. The mainstream view holds that it is important for Japan, as the only country that has been attacked by atomic bombs, to strive to abolish nuclear weapons, but it is more important to "strike a balance between ideal and reality". According to their thinking logic, Japan, as the only victim of atomic bombing, should calmly deal with the surrounding situation and seriously think about how to effectively resolve the "nuclear deterrent against Japan" while not giving up the initiative of "a nuclear-free world".
Some politicians even directly criticized the three security documents, arguing that Japan should not state the "three non-nuclear principles" in its national security strategy without formulating a national nuclear strategy, and proposed that the principle of "not introducing nuclear weapons" should be erased, and the two principles of "not possessing" and "not manufacturing" must rely on the nuclear deterrence of the United States.
American connivance and acquiescence
After visiting the Hiroshima Memorial Hall, Biden said: "May the story told by this museum always remind us that we have the responsibility to build a peaceful future, and we will eventually rid the world of nuclear weapons forever."
In fact, it is the United States that makes it increasingly difficult for the world to get rid of the shadow of nuclear weapons.
"Nuclear sharing" is an enhanced part of the nuclear umbrella provided by the United States to NATO allies, that is, the nuclear weapons deployed in allies in peacetime are in the hands of the United States and can be loaded and used by allied fighters in wartime, which is basically equivalent to the nuclearization of non-nuclear countries.
At present, the United States has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in five non-nuclear-weapon countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. To a certain extent, this has strengthened the deterrence of the United States and its actual control ability over the countries concerned.
Among the G7 countries, the United States, Britain and France have nuclear weapons. According to the data of FAS, the United States has 5,244 nuclear warheads, while France and Britain are one order of magnitude behind, with 290 and 225 respectively.
The nuclear weapons of allies are obviously not regarded as a threat by Japan. The Japanese media are concerned about: "North Korea has made frequent moves in the manufacture and improvement of nuclear weapons and repeatedly tested ballistic missiles"; "Russia will suspend the implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty"; China is increasing the number of nuclear warheads.
In this regard, some analysts pointed out that Japan is an important participant in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). According to regulations, it is unacceptable for nuclear countries to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan, and the road to independent development of nuclear weapons is even more impassable. Therefore, the United States believes it is necessary to provide Japan with extended deterrence, including nuclear deterrence.
"Extended deterrence" is one of the nuclear strategies of the United States, which means that the nuclear deterrent force of the United States is not only used to protect the homeland, but also to extend the protection of allies when they are threatened by nuclear attacks. However, this policy is not only difficult to achieve complete security, but will aggravate the arms race, undermine regional stability and create more serious risks.
At present, with North Korea’s "accelerating the development plan of nuclear weapons and missiles", Japan believes that it is as urgent as South Korea to stabilize the situation and should promote the establishment of a trilateral nuclear deterrence consultation mechanism among the United States, Japan and South Korea.
Some analysts pointed out that the United States tried to tie Japan and South Korea together with the North Korean nuclear issue, and its real purpose in discussing nuclear weapons with Japan and South Korea was to strengthen its ability to confront China. Therefore, the United States deliberately pulled Japan and South Korea into the water together, and now it is taking out a "nuclear weapon card" to seduce Japan and South Korea.
"Nuclear sharing" is by no means the way to peace.
After taking office, South Korean President Yin Xiyue changed the Moon Jae in administration’s policy to ease the situation on the peninsula, followed a tough line toward the DPRK, actively catered to the US "Indo-Pacific strategy", undermined the regional strategic balance and intensified the tension on the peninsula.
In January 2023, Yin Xiyue said, "If (the DPRK nuclear issue) escalates further, South Korea may deploy tactical nuclear weapons or independently hold nuclear weapons." According to a poll conducted by South Korea, about 60% people support South Korea’s independent possession of nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of Defense Austin’s visit to South Korea at the end of the same month, in addition to appeasing allies and reaffirming the US commitment to strengthen "extended deterrence" against North Korea, was mainly aimed at boosting South Korea’s confidence and strength in cooperating with the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and serving the competition of big countries.
During Yin Xiyue’s visit to the United States in April, he reached an "outcome document" with Biden’s government, namely the Washington Declaration, agreeing to upgrade the "extended deterrence" provided by the United States to South Korea, agreeing that the United States should provide a "nuclear umbrella" to South Korea and increase the deployment of strategic assets of the United States around the peninsula, including the deployment of strategic nuclear submarines. In fact, this is equivalent to undermining the principle of "denuclearization of the peninsula" and fully exposing the essence of "false peace and true confrontation" in the Washington Declaration.
Japan believes that it faces the so-called "security threat" on the peninsula like South Korea and should move closer to the direction of "nuclear sharing".
According to Japanese media reports, during the Tenth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Japan not only clamored for "nuclear sharing" with the United States, but also deleted the "three non-nuclear principles" mentioned in previous reports in the report submitted to this review conference.
The summit meeting between the United States, Japan and South Korea was held at the same time as the G7 Hiroshima Summit. The focus was on cooperation in the field of security, and sensitive issues related to "nuclear sharing" were on the agenda.
Some commentators pointed out that true peace should not lack reflection and repentance for history. In the past few days, Japanese people have held protest rallies and demonstrations, strongly opposing the G7 Hiroshima Summit. Tanaka Toshituki, a retired professor from Hiroshima City University in Japan, stressed in his speech that Japan had carried out barbaric aggression against Asian countries and regions such as China and the Korean Peninsula, and Japan repeatedly stressed that it was "the only victim country that was bombed by atomic bombs" and deliberately concealed its ugly history as an aggressor country. "Now Japan is politically using Hiroshima, which was bombed by atomic bombs, to hold a G7 summit, and the people of Hiroshima should wake up."
(Guangming Daily, Tokyo, May 22nd)