Since 2023, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles has been terminated-subsidies have been withdrawn, and how can new energy vehicles ＂last＂？
Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, continues to accelerate the pace of the transformation of the automobile industry from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. Last year, the output of new energy vehicles in Liuzhou exceeded 1.7 million, accounting for about 1/10 of the country. The picture shows that the new energy vehicles produced in Liuzhou were shipped and sold by train in Luorong Automobile Logistics Base of Liuzhou Automobile City recently. Photo by Li Hanchi (People’s Vision)
A few days ago, at the construction site of the new energy automobile parts industrial park project in Jinyi New District, Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, workers set up the grid of the factory building. It is reported that Jinyi New District has seized the strategic opportunity of the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta, focused on new energy vehicles and other projects to land in the new district, and built a new energy industrial chain with leading demonstration effect in the Yangtze River Delta. Photo by Zhu Yi (People’s Vision)
On December 31, 2022, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as "state subsidy") that lasted for 13 years was terminated.
How will China’s new energy automobile industry continue to develop after the exit of subsidies? What countermeasures do many car companies have? How to link up the new consumption support policies? Recently, our reporter interviewed this.
Help new energy vehicles to "make", "sell" and "use"
Compared with fuel vehicles, auto start, a new energy source in China, is relatively late and has a weak foundation, so it enjoys financial subsidies for a long time.
Why do you want to "eat a small stove" for new energy vehicles? Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Industry Association, said in an interview with this reporter that in the initial stage, China’s new energy automobile industry has some problems, such as weak product endurance, narrow practical use, single vehicle type and so on. Consumers’ recognition is not high, the level of supporting infrastructure is low, and enterprises’ enthusiasm for expanding production is not strong. It is urgent to solve the problems of "making", "selling" and "using" through policy incentives.
The history of state compensation can be traced back to 2009. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the "Demonstration, Promotion and Application Project of 1000 Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles in Ten Cities", and the central government arranged funds to subsidize the consumption of new energy vehicles in the public service field of pilot cities. In 2012, the State Council issued the Development Plan of Energy Saving and New Energy Automobile Industry (2012-2020), which further clarified the purchase subsidy policy.
After 2018, the national subsidy policy entered an adjustment period, and the "threshold" of new energy passenger car cruising range subsidies continued to rise, promoting the industry to move toward high-end development. On the one hand, new energy passenger cars with low endurance no longer enjoy the subsidy policy; On the other hand, the requirements for battery energy density and vehicle energy consumption are gradually becoming stricter, and they are regarded as important factors affecting the amount of bicycle subsidies.
On December 31, 2022, according to the notice issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments at the end of 2021, the state subsidy policy was officially terminated, and the vehicles licensed after that date were no longer subsidized, which marked the official withdrawal of the state financial subsidy of "4,800 yuan/vehicle for plug-in hybrid vehicles and 12,600 yuan/vehicle for pure electric vehicles".
Before the exit, the state subsidy has experienced many "retreats": in 2016, the purchase subsidy policy began to be implemented nationwide, and the financial subsidy adopted a retreat mechanism. By 2018, the subsidy for a single pure electric passenger car has decreased by about 50% under different driving mileage. After 2018, subsidies for some pure electric passenger cars with low driving range will gradually drop to zero, and the rest models will also drop year by year. By 2022, pure electric passenger cars with driving range below 300 kilometers will no longer enjoy subsidies.
State subsidy has played an important role in promoting the development of new energy automobile industry;
— — The output and market sales of new energy vehicles have increased year after year. From 2009 to 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China increased from 5,294 to 6,887,000, ranking first in the world in production and sales for nearly 8 years.
— — The vitality of market players is stimulated, and independent brands thrive. According to enterprise survey data, from 2013 to 2022, the annual registration number of new energy vehicle-related enterprises in China jumped from about 5,100 to 239,400, an increase of 47 times. By the beginning of 2023, there were 605,800 enterprises related to new energy vehicles in China, and independent brands such as BYD, Tucki and Weilai were highly recognized by consumers.
Xu Haidong said that the state subsidy represents China’s firm determination to support the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry, "from ‘ Thousands of vehicles in ten cities ’ The project has been gradually piloted and promoted in the public service fields such as taxis and buses, and the subsidy policy has been optimized, and the products with high endurance, high quality and high safety have been tilted, and the national subsidy has realized the new energy automobile industry in China ‘ Change lanes and overtake ’ Played a pivotal role. "
In Xu Haidong’s view, the state subsidy not only enables China’s new energy automobile industry to be made, sold and used, but also helps new energy vehicles to be made well, products sold well and consumers used well. "Subsidies have improved the popularity and consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles, accelerated the technological progress of batteries, motors and other related technologies, and also promoted the synchronous development of charging infrastructure construction and the industry itself. By guiding social capital into the new energy track, it has been found between the industry and charging facilities ‘ Chicken comes first ’ And ‘ Eggs come first ’ The balance point. " Xu Haidong said.
The time for subsidy withdrawal is ripe, and the temporary impact on car companies is limited and controllable.
According to the data released by the Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the Passenger Car Association), in January this year, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger cars in China reached 332,000, down 6.3% year-on-year and 48.3% quarter-on-quarter. Some people are worried that the auto market can adapt to the "weaning" of the state subsidy?
Xu Haidong explained that behind the temporary cold sales data at the beginning of the year, there are many factors such as the early Spring Festival and the early release of demand at the end of last year, which should not be completely attributed to the withdrawal of state subsidies. The influence of "weaning" on enterprises is limited and phased, and the new energy vehicle market entering the "post-state subsidy era" is expected to achieve a smooth transition.
According to analysis, from admission to exit, subsidies have promoted the full competition of market players and the survival of the fittest to a certain extent. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Association, believes that new energy automobile enterprises have achieved the effect of removing the false from the original speculative participation, driving powerful enterprises to fully enter and accelerating the withdrawal of subsidies.
According to the analysis of insiders, this shows that the expansion of the market itself is enough to offset the negative impact caused by the subsidy retreat, and the impact on car companies is controllable.
In addition, from policy-driven to market-driven, policy also leaves time for enterprises to adapt to adjustment.
In April, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a notice, demanding that the intensity and pace of slope retreat be gentle. In 2020-2022, the subsidy standards were reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
All major car companies have incorporated the impact factors brought by the financial subsidy recession into their strategic planning, and deployed more adequate countermeasures in terms of capital, technology and marketing in advance. Previously, the proportion of subsidies for best-selling models of new energy vehicles has dropped to a low level. Since 2017, the average proportion of subsidies in the selling price of the best-selling models in that year has dropped from 35% to less than 10%, which has dropped by nearly 25 percentage points in the past five years. "The withdrawal of state subsidies has long been clear, and enterprises are prepared for this." Xu Haidong said.
In 2021, the subsidy was reduced by 20% on the basis of 2020, but the number of approved subsidized vehicles increased nearly seven times compared with 2020, reaching 1.569 million. Xu Haidong said that during the gradual decline of subsidies in recent years, the market sales volume has exploded, indicating that consumers have fully recognized new energy vehicles, and the expansion of the market itself is enough to offset the impact brought by the decline. "Subsidies are cooling down, but the market is heating up, indicating that the timing of exit is appropriate." Xu Haidong believes that from the perspective of market development, industrial chain supply chain maturity, consumer habits and other conditions, the time for subsidies to exit is ripe.
"On the one hand, the financial subsidies for specific industries are characterized by stages. After the marketization reaches a certain level, it needs to be withdrawn in time. On the other hand, from the perspective of the subject who enjoys subsidies, as the subsidy effect is transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain, the benefit space of consumers and battery companies and car companies in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain is constantly compressed, but the price of raw materials is rising, which also shows that subsidies have arrived. When it is time to withdraw. " Xu Haidong said.
More coupons are issued, and the consumption of new energy vehicles is still good.
After the withdrawal of the state compensation, various localities continue to introduce policies to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, which is expected to play a positive role in "giving a ride".
Put in coupons — — On February 1st, Haishu District, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province launched the Lantern Festival car purchase coupon activity. Individuals who participated in the activity to buy new cars were given coupons ranging from 1,500 yuan to 10,000 yuan according to the different car prices. Coupons can be spent in some shopping malls, restaurants and other units in Haishu District. Zhengzhou City, Henan Province, launched the 2023 car rejuvenation season on January 5, and announced on February 3 that it would extend the deadline of the event to March 10, and issue 100 million yuan of car coupons on the basis of the original 50 million yuan. In addition, Shandong Province, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province and other places are also actively issuing coupons for new energy vehicles, and purchasing a single pure electric new energy vehicle in the region can get coupons of more than 3,000 yuan.
Stimulate replacement demand — — On January 29th, Shanghai issued the "Action Plan of Shanghai to Enhance Confidence, Expand Demand, Stabilize Growth and Promote Development", proposing to continue to implement subsidies for replacement of new energy vehicles. Before June 30th, 2023, individual consumers who scrapped or transferred their passenger cars registered in Shanghai and met relevant standards and bought pure electric vehicles will be given a financial subsidy of 10,000 yuan per car.
Insiders pointed out that despite the withdrawal of the state subsidy, other favorable factors for the consumption of new energy vehicles still exist, such as license processing, vehicle purchase tax, exemption from restrictions in some cities, and frequent highlights of local government subsidies, factory subsidies and dealer promotions, which still have strong appeal to consumers.
The policy support on the demand side has been continued. What is the response of the enterprises on the supply side?
In the short term, enterprises may face cost pressure or even market reshuffle due to the impact of high raw material prices and the withdrawal of subsidies. The reporter found out that since the end of last year, some head enterprises in the industry have raised the guidance price of some of their new energy vehicles. Some foreign brands cut prices against the trend and seize market share. The independent brand "New Power" represented by Tucki and Weilai recently announced the price reduction, which triggered the industry’s concern about a new round of price war.
Xu Haidong believes that new energy automobile enterprises should firmly grasp the key of consumer demand, continue to exert their efforts in independent innovation, quality control, service improvement, product going out to sea, ecological construction, etc., seize the opportunity of this round of industry restructuring, and effectively solve the concerns of consumers such as mileage anxiety. At the same time, the government should ensure the safety and stability of the supply chain of the new energy automobile industry chain, such as improving the price monitoring mechanism of raw materials such as lithium ore. In addition, Xu Haidong also suggested that after the withdrawal of the state subsidy, the support policies for the new energy vehicle industry can be improved in terms of tax incentives and tax design, such as balancing the tax burden ratio of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, optimizing and adjusting the vehicle purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles, and seeking a "win-win" between the country and the industry.