The performance of investment, consumption and export in the first quarter was eye-catching

● Reasonably expand effective investment, closely follow the national development strategy and accelerate the implementation of a number of key projects.

● Further expand consumption, exert efforts from both sides of supply and demand, and actively cultivate consumer market segments in key areas.

● Further promote the reduction of import and export costs and promote the steady improvement of import and export quality.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, in the first quarter of this year, China’s GDP increased by 6.4% at comparable prices. From the perspective of demand structure, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is 65.1%, the contribution rate of total capital formation is 12.1%, and the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services rises to 22.8%.

In the first quarter, the "Troika", as a driving force of economic growth, showed eye-catching performance in driving economic growth, the basic role of consumption was further consolidated, investment continued to play a key role in economic growth, and the contribution rate of net exports turned from negative pull in the same period last year to increase. This also promoted the main macroeconomic indicators to remain in a reasonable range, and the overall economic operation was stable and better than expected, achieving a good start.

Investment:

Investment in infrastructure will be further increased.

In the first quarter of this year, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 1,018.71 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, rising for six consecutive months, and also hitting a new high since May last year.

Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the overall fixed asset investment continued to rebound slightly, the internal structure of investment was optimized, and investment in technological transformation, high-tech industries, social fields and some short-board areas continued to grow rapidly, which added stamina for future development.

"In the first quarter, the growth rate of fixed asset investment rose steadily, and investment played a key role in economic growth." Economist Xu Hongcai said that to maintain steady economic growth, stable investment is still the key factor. Since the beginning of this year, in accordance with the central decision-making, China has continued to implement a prudent monetary policy, which is generally moderate. The Central Economic Work Conference requires that the proactive fiscal policy needs to increase efficiency and play a countercyclical role. In the first two months of this year, the issuance scale of local government bonds was 782.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.39%. With the steady efforts of fiscal policy and monetary policy, local infrastructure investment has rebounded and played a key role in economic growth.

The "Government Work Report" makes it clear that it is necessary to reasonably expand effective investment, closely follow the national development strategy, and accelerate the implementation of a number of key projects. In the first quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission has approved 50 fixed assets investment projects with a total investment of 370.3 billion yuan. It can be predicted that in the second quarter, related investment projects will start one after another, and investment in infrastructure such as intercity transportation, logistics, municipal administration, disaster prevention, civil and general aviation is expected to further increase.

Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said that with the increase in investment in the field of infrastructure replenishment, a number of key projects were accelerated in the second quarter, and the growth of infrastructure investment is expected to continue to accelerate. However, under the circumstances of strictly controlling debt leverage and preventing local government debt risks, the source of funds will still restrict the rebound of infrastructure investment.

Yuan Da, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that relevant departments will promptly release the remaining investment plans and urge all localities to speed up the implementation of the investment plans. At the same time, focusing on "accuracy", "efficiency" and "risk prevention", we will earnestly strengthen the investment management within the central budget and give full play to the guiding and leading role of investment within the central budget.

It is worth noting that in the first quarter of this year, investment in real estate development exceeded expectations by 11.8%, 2.3 percentage points higher than last year, and became an important force supporting investment in fixed assets.

Xu Hongcai said that Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party once again stressed the need to adhere to the positioning of "houses are used for living, not for speculation", and implement a long-term regulation mechanism of "one city, one policy, one policy for each city, and the main responsibility of the city government". This fully shows that the main tone of the central government’s regulation of the real estate market has not changed, and it is unlikely that real estate investment will continue to rebound sharply.

Consumption:

At the same time from both ends of supply and demand

In the first quarter of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage point faster than the previous two months. Among them, in March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated.

Lin Tao, director of the Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that China’s consumer goods market is generally stable, the consumption structure continues to be optimized and upgraded, the consumption pattern continues to innovate and develop, the transformation of old and new kinetic energy in the consumption field is steadily advanced, and the consumption potential of residents is further released. Consumption is still the first driving force for economic growth.

Liu Xuezhi analyzed that with the intensive introduction of policies to promote opening up, increase imports and improve consumer welfare and the continuous release of policy dividends, the reduction and cancellation of import tariffs on some consumer goods have played a positive role in consumption, and the contribution of consumption to economic growth has been significantly enhanced.

Xu Hongcai believes that the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods has rebounded slightly, which is related to the recovery of real estate. In the first quarter, the sales of commercial housing nationwide reached 2,703.9 billion yuan, up 5.6%, and the growth rate was 2.8 percentage points faster than that of the previous two months. Because housing consumption has a strong driving role, with the recovery of housing consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in society has rebounded to some extent.

In Xu Hongcai’s view, the rebound in the total retail sales of social consumer goods is also related to the accelerated income growth of urban and rural residents. In the first quarter of this year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 8,493 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.7% over the same period of last year, and a real increase of 6.8% after deducting the price factor. Only when the pockets of ordinary people are bulging will they have the will and ability to consume.

Lin Tao said that with the steady growth of residents’ income, tax reduction and fee reduction and the gradual effectiveness of consumption promotion policies, residents’ consumption demand will be further released, new kinetic energy in the consumption field will continue to accumulate, the consumption transformation and upgrading trend will continue, and the consumer market is expected to continue to maintain steady growth as a whole.

"To continue to maintain the steady growth of consumption, the key is to continue to maintain the steady growth of residents’ income, so that ordinary people can have more sense of gain and enhance their spending power. However, in order to increase the income of ordinary people, the most important thing is to stabilize employment. " Xu Hongcai said.

Liu Xuezhi suggested that to further expand consumption, efforts should be made from both supply and demand, actively cultivate consumer market segments in key areas, increase investment in emerging consumption and high-quality consumption, comprehensively create a good consumption environment, continuously improve residents’ consumption power, and guide the formation of reasonable consumption expectations to continuously meet the people’s growing needs for a better life.

Foreign trade:

Ensure stable import and export and improve quality.

In the first quarter of this year, the total import and export volume of goods was 7,005.1 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3.0 percentage points faster than the previous two months.

The total import and export volume maintained steady growth. On the one hand, it benefited from the overall stable and steady development trend of the domestic economy since this year, and the release of a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, which created a good development environment for foreign trade. On the other hand, the moderate increase in import and export prices and the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate have further boosted foreign trade growth.

Xu Hongcai believes that China’s foreign trade surplus has expanded in the first quarter, but this is a short-term phenomenon. In the next few years, the overall trend of the continuous reduction of foreign trade surplus has not changed. However, the foreign trade structure was obviously optimized in the first quarter, which is of great positive significance for the future development of foreign trade.

At present, there are still many uncertain factors in the international environment. In particular, the International Monetary Fund recently lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2019, and the World Trade Organization also lowered the growth rate of international trade in 2019. The external environment for China’s foreign trade development is still severe and complicated.

Liu Xuezhi said that net exports played a positive role in economic growth in the first quarter, reaching 22.8%, compared with -0.6% last year. Sino-US trade friction is expected to ease, which is conducive to the growth of China’s import and export trade. However, global economic growth slows down, external demand may weaken, and the future trade surplus will face contraction pressure. After the second quarter, the pulling effect of net exports on economic growth may be weakened, but it is expected to remain positive, better than last year.

Xu Hongcai suggested that at present, we should still focus on stabilizing domestic demand, at the same time accelerate the transformation of foreign trade mode, and enhance the competitiveness of foreign trade through product technology progress and optimization of industrial structure; Constantly optimize the business environment, promote deep-seated reforms with a high level of opening up to the outside world, expand foreign capital market access, implement national treatment, and attract foreign capital to flow to modern service industries, high-end manufacturing, and new economy and new kinetic energy.

Experts also suggested that at present, we should conscientiously implement the central government’s "six stable" decision-making arrangements, continuously optimize the port business environment, launch a new round of special actions for cross-border trade facilitation, consolidate the effect of reducing the overall customs clearance time of goods, further promote the reduction of import and export compliance costs, streamline import and export supervision documents, improve efficiency and reduce fees, enhance the sense of enterprise acquisition, and ensure that import and export are stable and improve quality. (Reporter Lin Huocan)