Will the curtain of Russian presidential election open for Putin’s post-era？

　　Guest:

　　Professor Wang Zhengquan, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China

　　Jiang Yi, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, China Academy of Social Sciences.

　　Wang Qi, Associate Professor of Sino-Russian Cultural Research and Exchange Center in Tsinghua University

　　Wang Lijiu, researcher of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

　　Q: According to the Russian Constitution, the election results will be valid only if the turnout rate is higher than 50%. The poll before this election shows that about 80% of the people will vote, which exceeds the expectations made by analysts before. Why do such a high proportion of people want to vote in this election?

　　Qi Wang: There is a national sentiment and ideal behind this phenomenon. The Russian people are eager to maintain and carry forward the dignity and pride of a big country and a powerful country for a long time, and political participation is an effective way to satisfy this national psychology. This kind of political enthusiasm was once frustrated before and after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, but the outstanding achievements of the Putin government once again awakened the Russian people’s dream of becoming a strong country. The Russian people regarded their solemn vote as their contribution to the re-emergence of Russia.

　　Jiang Yi: This reflects two key points: First, although some people accuse Putin of "retrogression in democracy" and think that the regime "arranged" and "manipulated" this election, the general public recognizes and supports Putin’s ruling philosophy of bringing Russia from a systematic and comprehensive crisis to the road of rejuvenating into a powerful country. Second, the Russian regime’s behavioral ability has improved, basically forming a situation in which parliament, government, major political parties, elite teams and the media cooperate with each other. In this situation, it is more successful for political organizations to mobilize people to actively participate in elections.

　　Wang Lijiu: The enthusiasm of Russian voters to vote depends on three factors: first, the importance of the issues to be determined in voting; Second, the level of cultural accomplishment of voters; The third is the living area factor. Polls show that about 80% of the people are willing to vote in this presidential election, which is a high turnout rate, indicating that people think that the presidential election is very important. Whether to participate in the presidential election and who to choose as president, whether Putin’s line can be continued in the future, is also related to the quality of voters’ personal and family life.

　　Q: At present, there are four candidates participating in the Russian presidential election: Medvedev, Bogdahn Novo, zyuganov and zhirinovsky, candidates jointly recommended by four political parties. According to the polls, Medvedev’s support rate is far higher than other candidates. Why?

　　Jiang Yi: Medvedev has obvious advantages in this year’s presidential election. Other candidates have no experience in working in political institutions and lack ruling experience. The ideological tendencies and political opinions they represent are not recognized by most voters. In terms of pure sensory components such as personal image and age, these three people also have no competitive advantage. More importantly, Medvedev has the support of Putin. The electoral resources he enjoys make all political forces help him. In addition to the campaign funds far ahead, the current presidential office is almost his campaign team.

　　Wang Lijiu: First of all, Putin’s support has enabled most voters to transfer their support for Putin to Medvedev. Secondly, since Medvedev was appointed as the first deputy prime minister of the government in 2005, he has focused on "national priority projects" such as education, medical care, housing, agriculture and population, which are closely related to people’s livelihood, and won many people’s hearts. Third, zyuganov and zhirinovsky are both "old men" in Russian politics, and voters know their situation like the back of their hand, but little about Bogdahn’s. Therefore, most voters are not optimistic about entrusting the future of the country and personal life to them. In contrast, Medvedev has a clear advantage.

　　Wang Zhengquan: It is mainly because the majority of voters have transferred their support for Putin to Medvedev. In addition, the recommendation of the four parties also played an important role. In last December’s parliamentary election, the United Russia Party and the Just Russia Party won 72.04% of the votes. Together with the other two parties, the voter support rate is higher, which means that Medvedev will be supported by most voters. Of course, Medvedev’s own superior conditions and outstanding achievements since he took office have also gathered a high support rate for him.

　　Q: Since Putin took office as Russian President for eight years, he has ended the chaotic situation after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, with rapid domestic economic growth and stable social life. According to the current Russian constitution, Putin cannot be re-elected for three terms. Is it possible for Putin’s route to continue when he no longer serves as president or becomes prime minister?

　　Wang Yijiu: If Medvedev and Putin form a "Mei-Pu" new match according to the "agreement" in December last year, Putin’s line will certainly be implemented. Moreover, Medvedev himself is one of the participants in the "Putin Line" and the "Putin Plan", and there are no major differences between the two sides on major policies and guidelines, which will be conducive to the continuation of the Putin Line and the stable development of Russia.

　　Qi Wang: Putin once said that it is important for the new president to maintain the continuity of various decisions and not undermine various mechanisms to ensure the country’s continued progress. Medvedev also said that Russia should follow the route initiated by Putin. This kind of public expression has shown the tacit understanding between the two men, coupled with their years of working relationship and "personal relationship", which has become an "artificial" factor for the continuation of Putin’s line. In addition, Putin’s team has won the absolute advantage in the State Duma, which has also become a powerful force for the continuation of Putin’s line.

　　Wang Zhengquan: If Medvedev is elected president and Putin becomes prime minister, then Russia will definitely continue to implement the Putin line. Medvedev once emphasized his importance to the continuation of Putin’s line. Although Russia will adjust its current policies and guidelines according to the changes at home and abroad, these adjustments will not deviate from Putin’s line, but will only further improve and develop Putin’s line.

　　Q: Since Putin came to power, China and Russia have reached an unprecedented high level in political mutual trust, strategic cooperation and pragmatic cooperation. What impact will the upcoming presidential election in Russia have on Russia’s future foreign policy, especially Russia-China relations?

　　Jiang Yi: The institutional framework for all-round cooperation between China and Russia is improving day by day, the atmosphere for in-depth cooperation is gradually becoming stronger, and the degree of multiple overlapping strategic interests between the two countries is constantly improving. This is an important factor for the steady development of bilateral relations, which means that there will be no principled changes in the project of developing strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries.

　　Qi Wang: During Putin’s administration, although there were some discordant sounds and phenomena in Sino-Russian relations, the mutual holding of "Year of the Country", the upcoming "Year of Language", joint military exercises and the complete settlement of border issues all indicated that China and Russia had entered a period of "close strategic cooperative partnership". As mentioned earlier, Putin’s line will continue, including the continuation of Russia’s future foreign policy. Therefore, we have reason to believe that Sino-Russian relations will develop in a better direction in the future.

　　Wang Zhengquan: Russia-China strategic cooperative partnership will continue to develop in depth. It is particularly important for Russia to develop friendly cooperation with China by resisting the oppression of western countries, safeguarding national interests and relying on China strategically. Over the years, high-level exchanges between Russia and China have been close, political mutual trust has been continuously improved, economic and trade cooperation has developed rapidly, and international strategic cooperation has been strengthened day by day. Although there are some problems, the two sides are actively negotiating to solve them. In short, this Russian presidential election will not have a negative impact on Russia-China relations, and the friendly and cooperative relations between the two countries will continue to develop.

　　On March 2, the Russian presidential election will kick off, and Putin will soon end his eight-year term. Can Putin’s route continue? Who will enter the Kremlin? (Zheng Xing Jing Qiuqing)

Editor: Jufu