Interview with Pan Jiahua, Deputy Director of the National Climate Change Committee： Zero carbon is the development opportunity and ultimate goal of China.
In half a century, Pan Jiahua witnessed the great changes in the economic research of climate change and international climate governance in the process of moving from a peasant child in Hubei to a high-end academic stage in the world.
As a scholar in China, Pan Jiahua believes that his mission is to contribute academic discourse, make China voice in a language that can be understood all over the world, safeguard development rights and interests, and make his own contribution to all mankind in discipline construction and development paradigm research.
He was admitted to the university in 1977, went to Beijing for graduate study in early 1982, and studied at Cambridge University in England in 1988. Pan Jiahua always sought knowledge. From the learning study of sustainable development economics, to the innovative exploration of climate change economics, and then to the theoretical inquiry of the economics of ecological civilization development paradigm transformation, looking back on his academic path for more than 40 years, Pan Jiahua self-evaluates: seeking knowledge, studying and seeking, with little poetry, facing the distance, and only paying attention to hardships.
When he first arrived at Cambridge University in 1988, Pan Jiahua first heard the new term climate change. He bought two dictionaries and began to get in touch with these new concepts. At that time, he didn’t realize the essence of climate problem, but he never thought that it became the main object of his research career for more than 30 years.
Today in 2023, climate change and energy transformation have become one of the most urgent and significant issues faced by all countries and all mankind in the world.
PanjiahuaPan Jiahua is currently the deputy director of the China National Expert Committee on Climate Change, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the president of the Institute of Ecological Civilization of Beijing University of Technology.In 2010, he was invited to explain the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in 2020 for the 19th collective study in the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and he was also the lead author of the fourth assessment report of IPCC.Throughout the development of Pan Jiahua’s research on climate change economics, he actively participated in relevant international platforms, and discussed why developed countries must take the lead in reducing emissions and why developing countries must take development as the priority, and analyzed the economic rationality of China’s rapid growth of carbon emissions from the perspective of axiomatic theory.
Recently, Pan Jiahua accepted an exclusive interview with The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) and expounded his views on the path, urgency and challenges of energy transformation under the influence of climate change in recent years.
"At present, China and the whole world urgently need to change the track from high-carbon fossil energy to zero-carbon renewable energy. This is a subversive revolution that is bound to happen." Pan Jiahua said.
In an exclusive interview, Pan Jiahua expressed his encouragement and expectation to himself and future China scholars: In this era of change, it is impossible to stay out of the changing trend of the world. Faced with the strength of developed countries and the dominance of the western discourse system, scholars should take responsibility and take the initiative.
"To this end, the first thing is to improve the original ability. Only with originality can we lead development, have discourse status and have pricing power. The second is to reshape the world and the governance system in terms of rules, standards and norms. Thirdly, we should reconstruct the discourse system. China is a member of the world. No matter what difficulties they face, China scholars need to use international words to show their academic responsibility. I don’t talk to myself and tell the story of China in a language that others don’t understand, but I want to send out the China voice with theoretical basis and methodological characteristics in international academic participation. " He said.
The following is the content of this interview.
Climate change is an indisputable fact.
The Paper:How do you embark on the road of working on climate change?
Pan Jiahua:I was admitted to the university in 1977, and went to Beijing for postgraduate study in early 1982. In 1988, I went to Cambridge University for further study. When I first heard the new term climate change, I was very curious. I bought two dictionaries and started to get in touch. At that time, I didn’t realize the essence of the problem, and my views on climate problems were superficial.
In the middle and late 1980s, issues such as sustainable development and global warming have gradually entered the mainstream of western academic research. During my doctoral degree at Cambridge University in 1988, all kinds of speeches, academic exchanges and books and papers revolved around these topics. I have comprehensively and systematically studied, sorted out and mastered the classic works of Adam Smith, the theoretical context and method system of mainstream scholars’ environmental and resource economics, which has laid a solid theoretical foundation for me to study the economics of climate change, and I am familiar with the discourse mode of mainstream western economics, and I am also committed to paying attention to the maintenance of national interests in the process of global climate governance, attacking its shield with its spear, and making China sound in a language that the West can understand, and moving forward smoothly.
In 1996, I entered the Beijing Representative Office of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) as an official and consultant of energy and environment projects, and began to pay systematic attention to energy and greenhouse gas emissions. During the negotiation of Kyoto Protocol in 1997, I published my first paper on the economics of climate change, and then went to the Netherlands to participate in the scientific assessment of climate change mitigation by IPCC.
At the end of 2001, after completing the work of the IPCC’s scientific assessment report "Mitigation", I returned to China to start the discipline construction and academic research of climate change economics and international climate governance.
In the mid-2000s, through analysis, we found that China, as the factory of the world, condensed and discharged products, in fact, were not consumed by Chinese, but transferred to developed countries. Therefore, we put forward the concept of transfer emissions, which needs to weaken the production side and emphasize the consumption side accounting. Many international speeches have attracted the attention of internationally renowned scholars.
Our research found that economic and social development needs energy services, not carbon. Climate justice is not carbon justice, but fair access to the right to development. Therefore, on major international occasions, we voiced that developing countries do not need carbon, but need development. If developed countries can be low-carbon, developing countries will certainly be able to develop low-carbon. Therefore, developed countries need to set an example first, thus proving that low-carbon can also develop, and late-developing countries can avoid high-carbon development.
In the 2010s, zero-carbon renewable energy has been competitive in the market. Fossil energy has high safety risk, high pollution and high cost, while carbon removal technology has only input and no commercial benefits. At this time, we further deduce the academic discourse and clearly put forward that the development and utilization of zero-carbon energy is an opportunity for high-quality development, not a rigid constraint for development.
The Paper:For many ordinary people who are still unfamiliar with climate change, does this issue need to be debated today?
Pan Jiahua:I think we can look at it from two aspects. First, is the world getting warmer? I think everyone can feel the same way in recent years, and it is really warming. This is supported by observational facts and data. Scientists have found that the trend of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is highly consistent with the trend of warming, and it is concentrated in a very short period of time and rises rapidly.
Second, is this change man-made? Scientists are very cautious about this. We can see very interesting changes from the wording of six authoritative climate change assessment reports published by IPCC in 1990, 1996, 2001, 2007, 2013 and 2021 respectively.
In 1996, the second assessment report issued by IPCC only said that human influence could be felt, which caused an international uproar at that time. However, the severity of the following reports has increased, until the latest sixth report (2021) used "undoubtedly" to describe the role of human beings.
Some people will say that the earth has warmed in history, but we should pay attention to the different scales in this time range. The temperature rise of one or two degrees Celsius in history belongs to the division of geological time, which occurred in the time scale of millions of grades; Now we are talking about a rise of one or two degrees Celsius, which belongs to the century level, and it happened in more than 200 years since the industrial revolution. In such a short time, the whole social economy and natural ecosystem can’t adapt to such drastic changes, which may have disastrous consequences.
Social significance of climate change
The Paper: What does climate change mean for a society as a whole?
Pan Jiahua:Some people say that warming is good. But on the whole, the consensus of the scientific community now is "not worth the loss." The target basis of climate temperature control of 1.5℃ is that warming will lead to the emergence of some climate critical points, which will make many animals and plants unable to adapt and affect biodiversity, including human survival.
In addition to focusing on climate change itself. I also want to think from another angle, that is, can the resources on which the survival and development of human society depend support the future of mankind?
After the industrial revolution, we used fossil energy, a kind of energy with high energy density and low cost of exploitation and utilization, to support the development of the whole society. But can this last forever?
Without energy, our modern life, modern industry and modern technology could not develop. Without electricity and power, how can our society function? How to guarantee the quality of our life?
Fossil energy is unsustainable and renewable, and it will be dug up one day. How will mankind develop in the future? Therefore, even if there is no climate change, energy transformation is definitely necessary.
The Paper:In 2020, China clearly put forward the "Double Carbon Goal", that is, the goal of achieving the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality (zero carbon emissions) by 2060. What does this mean?
Pan Jiahua:Ideally, all we will use in the future is renewable energy, that is, to achieve zero carbon emissions. This trend is unstoppable and will be a rolling development.
In my opinion, there is no need to obsess too much about peak carbon dioxide emissions. We need to plan carbon neutrality strategically. Peak carbon dioxide emissions itself is not important, and it is not a kind of rigidity. When we look at developed countries, they reach their peak naturally, which is the result of internal adjustment of fossil energy, that is, relatively low-carbon natural gas replaces relatively high-carbon coal.
Peak carbon dioxide emissions’s ultimate goal is carbon neutrality. If we are too entangled with peak carbon dioxide emissions, it will not only be unnecessary for our strategic planning and the steady development of our economy, but also may cause greater constraints or harm. At present, all departments and regions are making and publishing the planning of peak carbon dioxide emissions very clearly. We can do it, but we must not be too mechanical.
Net zero carbon is the most important, why is it the most important?If there is no orderly withdrawal of fossil energy, carbon neutrality will be empty talk. Net zero carbon is our development opportunity and our ultimate goal.
Switch tracks
The Paper: Where is the path for energy transformation to switch tracks and change?
Pan Jiahua:There are only three ways to reduce carbon emissions: the first is to improve energy efficiency, such as the example of energy-saving lamps. This path is a gradual reform, but it will become more and more difficult, and it will always be low-carbon and absolutely impossible to go zero-carbon.
The second path: carbon capture technology, that is, the emitted carbon is "captured" and then sealed into geological structures. But I think this is but since water still flows, though we cut it with our swords. There are three reasons: first, it consumes more energy in the process of capture, transportation and burial; Second, carbon may leak out after it is buried underground; The third is that the economic cost is unsustainable;
There is also the path of "carbon sink" between forests (planting more trees) and oceans. Nature is a natural and balanced circulatory system, which absorbs and releases carbon dioxide. In addition, the carbon it can absorb is really a drop in the bucket compared with the total emission of fossil energy combustion. So the second path can take a millimeter or two, but it can’t go very far.
The third path is zero-carbon renewable energy. Because our entire human social and economic development needs not carbon, but energy services. Fossil energy, including coal, oil and natural gas, contains carbon, but it has the function of energy service. If we use zero-carbon landscape water and biomass energy now, why do we need carbon fossil energy?
The Paper:But how can we achieve such a track switch?
Pan Jiahua:It is very simple to switch tracks and change the track path. If we still emphasize the clean utilization of fossil energy ballast stone and coal, and run on the low-carbon track of fossil energy, we can only go to low carbon forever and infinitely, and it is absolutely impossible to go to zero carbon.
In September, 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council’s Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job of Carbon Neutralization in peak carbon dioxide emissions clearly required that we should achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, and non-fossil energy accounts for more than 80%, not 80%, but more than 80%. At present, fossil energy accounts for about 85% of our energy consumption. In less than 40 years, it is very likely that we need to cut it to around 15%, or even lower. That is to say, if we don’t have such a track switch and channel change, it is impossible to achieve carbon neutrality through low-carbon energy efficiency.
From the beginning, we should "change lanes" and "overtake" on the runway of renewable energy, that is to say, we should master the core new technologies in these new fields, keep a clear view of the direction, move forward steadily, stand in the moral high position of mankind and the strong position in the market, and lead with high songs.
Switching from high-carbon fossil energy to zero-carbon renewable energy is a subversive revolution in energy production and consumption. Of course, the revolution on the energy production side is accompanied or needed by the energy storage technology revolution, thus eliminating and making up for the intermittence and instability of renewable energy. Pumped energy storage, compressed air energy storage and chemical energy storage, such as automobile power batteries, have also shown strong commercial competition.
Revolution of end consumption on energy consumption side: If non-fossil energy is used in energy production now, but coal, oil and natural gas are still needed on the consumption side, there is nothing to do, so a zero-carbon revolution must be carried out on the consumption side.
Traffic is the most difficult, involving oil or energy security issues, but now pure electric vehicles have shown the trend of the market crowding out fuel vehicles. Northern heating, like Beijing’s 1+4+N+X infrastructure architecture of fossil energy combustion or fossil energy combustion waste heat heating, seems to be energy saving on the surface, but in fact it is locked in high carbon, high cost and high risk. The distributed heat pump technology has higher heating efficiency and lower cost, and there is no risk of pipe network leakage and rupture. Let’s think about what can’t be replaced by zero-carbon renewable energy. So the second one is the revolution of terminal energy consumption.
Difficulties and challenges
The Paper: What are the difficulties in the transition from fossil energy to zero-carbon renewable energy in the future?
Pan Jiahua:The first is the orderly withdrawal of fossil energy. Fossil energy is highly capital-intensive, and fossil energy assets have a long life cycle. If you invest now, it may not be paid back in 40 years. The goal of our national independent contribution to the international community is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, and it is a net zero carbon emission covering all greenhouse gases. Therefore, we must plan and start the orderly exit of fossil energy from now on, avoid the dilemma of being squeezed out by the market and the huge capital precipitation waste, and reduce the risk of high carbon locking and not being carbon neutral on time.
Don’t invest too much "ballast stone", which seems to be steady but not far-reaching, and even has systematic risks of sinking, rolling over and puncturing the "ship".
Secondly, the development of net zero carbon is a transformation of development paradigm. At present, the production and supply of fossil energy are highly concentrated and monopolized. It seems that energy security, in fact, the inherent risks are simply uncontrollable. Fossil energy, especially oil, is dependent on foreign countries for more than 70%, so geopolitical, economic and military risks and the root causes of insecurity cannot be eliminated. The giant of fuel vehicles has a huge production capacity and lacks independent intellectual property rights. It can only OEM cars from the United States, Japan, Germany and even South Korea, and has almost no independent brands. Moreover, it is highly capital-intensive and has few jobs; Capital is profit-seeking, so it can’t be used for consumption, which has limited or even negative effect on stimulating domestic demand and improving people’s livelihood and well-being.
Zero-carbon renewable energy will be decentralized. You see, our current batteries, new energy vehicles and heat pumps are decentralized, distributed and flat, so that energy security is guaranteed. Imagine: Who can "cover the sky with one hand" and shield the sun’s radiation, block the wind and prevent the rain? The zero-carbon renewable energy revolution is a real revolution, and it is an extensive and profound systematic change in the economy and society.
For those who can’t clean zero carbon for the time being, they should use fossil energy, such as coke for long-process steelmaking and jet fuel that can’t be replaced for the time being, so let it be high carbon for the time being. Our goal is to be carbon neutral by 2060, not by 2050, not by 2030. There is no need to rush, let alone be anxious. Technology is progressing, and hydrogen energy steelmaking, electric or bioethanol and hydrogen energy may become aviation fuel in the future. Not now, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, there will always be a solution. 20 years ago, solar photovoltaic and pure electric vehicles, can we imagine?
Just like the rolling replacement of agricultural civilization by industrial civilization, the replacement of fossil energy by zero-carbon energy is unstoppable. It is inevitable that the whole world will develop in that direction and trend. The driving force of energy transformation in the future comes from local and social grassroots.
Some people are obsessed with pure electric vehicles. From the life cycle, it is not net zero carbon, because the steel used for car body production is high carbon; Some people also question that solar photovoltaic modules are energy-intensive. What’s with all this? There is no need to entangle these. If we can achieve low carbon, we will achieve low carbon. If we can’t, leave it alone. As long as the new energy vehicles don’t consume oil in the use stage, the production is none of the car users’ business, and others will do it.
We say "stand first and then break". We don’t want entrenched and monopolized fossil energy-related enterprises to innovate, because they want to persist. How moist they are now, why are they innovating? Innovation is risky. There is a monopoly position, a monopoly market, no competition and no internal motivation for innovation.
However, private enterprises that do not have a monopoly position have no "success" to defend, no burden, and innovation has opportunities. You see, power batteries and solar photovoltaic are almost all private enterprises. However, under the current system of our country, there are absolutely no large state-owned enterprises, especially central enterprises, with abundant capital. Once the central government has made it clear that it is carbon neutral, their capital is abundant and they are scrambling for land, which is impossible for private enterprises to match. In recent years, China’s large-scale scenic base construction and long-distance power transmission and transformation investment have been far ahead in the world, and it is impossible without the generosity of central enterprises. So we need more enterprise innovation, win-win and cooperation.
In addition, we should now raise the development level of net zero carbon. From simple copying to improving originality. China’s greatest advantage lies in his strong learning ability, taking advantage of others’ original technology and amplifying it. Of course, there are some improvements. But we still have a lot of room for improvement in originality.
The United States and the European Union don’t have enough capacity to produce photovoltaic modules themselves, but they prohibit the import of photovoltaic modules from China for various reasons. The technology we need is always blocked by others. We should lead the world, the standard world and the rule world, and only rely on production capacity, the world factory, and only OEM production, without the initiative, we must have original technology with independent intellectual property rights, so as to enhance the energy level of net zero carbon transition development.
The Paper:Finally, I’d like to talk about international climate cooperation, especially the cooperation between China and the United States. What’s your outlook?
Pan Jiahua:In the field of climate change, Sino-US cooperation is inevitable, and there may be some twists and turns in the middle. However, there is no doubt about Sino-US climate cooperation. There are three reasons: first, the climate issue is a common moral issue of mankind, and no country can be anti-human, right? Morally, China and the United States must also cooperate.
Second, it is a question of interests. Both China and the United States have the motivation to expand their political and economic interests, develop their own industries and expand their competitive advantages on the issue of climate change.
Third, the communication between the people and the non-government can’t be blocked. I am very optimistic about this. However, we must also be clear that it is difficult for climate cooperation to extend to other areas of Sino-US relations at present, and it is impossible to change the overall geopolitical pattern of China and the United States.
In addition, the future cooperation between China and Europe may be strengthened. Some European countries, such as Germany, have rich experience in the development of renewable energy, and the future cooperation between China and Europe may be more promising.
(This article is from The Paper, please download the "The Paper" APP for more original information)
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